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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

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Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2026 Jul 01 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 01-Jul 03 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 01-Jul 03 2026

	Jul 01	Jul 02	Jul 03
00-03UT	4.67 (G1)	3.33	2.67
03-06UT	3.33	4.00	2.33
06-09UT	1.67	3.00	2.33
09-12UT	2.00	2.67	4.67 (G1)
12-15UT	2.33	2.00	5.67 (G2)
15-18UT	2.00	2.00	4.67 (G1)
18-21UT	3.00	2.00	4.33
21-00UT	4.33	1.67	4.33

Rationale: G1 (Minor) storming is expected, with a chance for isolated periods reaching G2 (Moderate) through early on 01 Jul as CME activity persists. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 02 Jul with the possible arrival of another CME that left the Sun on 27 Jun, but confidence is lower for this event. G1-G2 conditions are possible by 03 Jul pending further analysis of the CME associated with the X1.1 flare.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 01-Jul 03 2026

	Jul 01	Jul 02	Jul 03
S1 or greater	20%	20%	20%

Rationale: The probability for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms increases beginning 03 Jul as Regions 4478 and 4479 continue to develop and move westward into a more favorable position to connect with Earth.

Radio Blackout Activity

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jun 30 2026 2050 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 01-Jul 03 2026

	Jul 01	Jul 02	Jul 03
R1-R2	70%	70%	70%
R3 or greater	20%	20%	20%

Rationale: Isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events primarily due to the potential of Regions 4478 and 4479.

Sun Images

eit 171	eit 195	eit 284	eit 304


Images: From left to right: EIT 171, EIT 195, EIT 284, EIT 304 EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

SDO/HMI Continuum	SDO/HMI Magnetogram	LASCO C2	LASCO C3


The MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager) images shown here are taken in the continuum near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line. The most prominent features are the sun spots.		LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself.
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Introduction Movie

Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. This introduction movie in the English language will open on a new tab/window when you click on the image below.